TSP AI Advisor

Real-time synthetic series analysis for TSP funds

Today’s guidance

Signal: 🟢 Risk ON

Action: Increase exposure to C/S/I funds

Confidence: Medium

Recession risk: 37.0% (Low)

Why:

Market is in an uptrend
Inflation is rising (can pressure markets)
News sentiment is negative

Selected fund

C Fund

Risk score

0.318

Regime

constructive

Best current fund

C Fund

Lowest current modeled risk among C/S/I/F/G using synthetic return-based series.

Recommended allocation

C Fund (S&P 500)	100.0%
S Fund (Small Cap)	0.0%
I Fund (International)	0.0%
F Fund (Bonds)	0.0%
G Fund (Government)	0.0%

What to rebalance today

Single-fund selection detected for C Fund; no lifecycle rebalance suggestion applied.
Continue using C Fund unless your risk tolerance or retirement timeline changes.

Why this recommendation

This fund uses its direct synthetic price series mapped to its base proxy for C Fund.
Trend and momentum were computed from the actual blended daily series for C Fund, not from averaged signal fields.
The synthetic series is above its 200-day trend, supporting a healthier backdrop.
The blended series is also above its 50-day average, which supports near-term momentum.
Recent 3-month blended momentum is positive.
6-month blended momentum confirms longer-term strength.
The synthetic fund series is close to its recent highs, which usually points to stronger relative conditions.
Blended volatility is relatively contained for this fund.
Low VIX indicates a calmer broader market backdrop.
Recent business-news sentiment is mildly negative.

What the news is telling us

Overall tone: negative

Recent news is mostly negative, which can create pressure on markets.

Market risk level (from news): 0.59

Risk level is balanced — no strong signal from news alone.

Main topics: news_scored

Key themes currently driving market sentiment.

Sentiment derived from 9 headlines

What this means:

News is mixed — it does not strongly support or oppose current market direction.

Simple takeaway:

No strong signal — rely on trend and macro signals for decisions.

Forecast

Expected Return: 19.6%

Expected Volatility: 14.8%

Recession probability: 0.37

Recent headlines

Wall Street is lower as a U.S.-Iran truce remains uncertain; Warsh faces confirmation hearing (COMP:IND:) - Seeking Alpha
Stock Market Today: Dow, S&P 500 Fall As Oil Spikes; Amazon Lifts These Names (Live Coverage) - Investor's Business Daily
Amazon launches GLP-1 weight loss program, promising 'fast, convenient' access - CNBC
Michael and Susan Dell to donate $750 million to UT Austin to fund new medical campus - CNBC
Scoop: Top U.S. cyber agency doesn't have access to Anthropic's powerful hacking model - Axios
Middle East war has pushed up air fares 24%, research shows - BBC
Tim Cook’s secret weapon that turned Apple into a $4 trillion empire - MarketWatch
UnitedHealth posts quarterly profit above Wall Street estimates, on track for turnaround - Yahoo Finance
Citi spells out 3 scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz — and where oil prices would go in each - CNBC

Component risk by underlying fund

Fund	Risk score
C Fund	0.22
S Fund	0.0
I Fund	0.0
F Fund	0.0
G Fund	0.0

Fund comparison (C / S / I / F / G)

Rank	Fund	Proxy	Risk	Regime	3M	6M	Drawdown	Volatility	Recession Prob.
1	C Fund	C Fund	0.318	constructive	0.0307	0.0579	0.0	0.1335	0.37
2	S Fund	S Fund	0.318	constructive	0.0214	0.1157	-0.0064	0.1954	0.37
3	I Fund	I Fund	0.378	neutral	0.0269	0.0793	-0.0338	0.1486	0.37
4	G Fund	G Fund	0.708	defensive	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.57
5	F Fund	F Fund	0.778	defensive	-0.0036	-0.0155	-0.0172	0.0427	0.65

Fund Performance Summary

Fund	Risk	Regime	3M	6M	Drawdown	Volatility
L Income	0.318	constructive	0.0096	0.0225	-0.0029	0.0524
L 2025	0.318	constructive	0.0184	0.0457	-0.0048	0.0917
L 2030	0.318	constructive	0.0226	0.0589	-0.0057	0.1118
L 2035	0.318	constructive	0.0243	0.064	-0.0061	0.1194
L 2040	0.318	constructive	0.0255	0.0675	-0.0063	0.1246
L 2045	0.318	constructive	0.0266	0.0711	-0.0064	0.1298
L 2050	0.318	constructive	0.0269	0.0718	-0.0064	0.131
L 2055	0.318	constructive	0.0273	0.0726	-0.0064	0.1321
L 2060	0.318	constructive	0.0275	0.0739	-0.0064	0.1338
L 2065	0.318	constructive	0.0278	0.0746	-0.0064	0.1349

Lifecycle composition of C Fund

SPY	100.0%
IWM	0.0%
EFA	0.0%
AGG	0.0%
G	0.0%

Market trend (simple view)

Current level	135.37 This represents the current value of your portfolio model.
Short-term trend (50-day)	128.9 Average over the last ~2 months — shows recent momentum.
Long-term trend (200-day)	127.29 Average over the last ~10 months — shows overall market direction.

What this means:

The market is in a strong uptrend. Momentum is positive — staying invested is generally favorable.

Simple takeaway:

Market conditions are supportive. Growth-oriented funds (C/S/I) may perform better.

Best fund recommendation

C Fund

Risk score: 0.318

Regime: constructive

Lowest current modeled risk among C/S/I/F/G using synthetic return-based series.

Macro backdrop

Inflation trend	rising Prices are going up. This can lead to higher interest rates and pressure on stocks.
Yield curve	normal Long-term rates are higher than short-term — a healthy economic signal.
Fed policy	hawkish The Federal Reserve is focused on fighting inflation and keeping rates high.

What this means:

Higher rates may slow the market. Consider a more cautious allocation.

Market proxies (current prices)

C Fund (S&P 500)	710.15
S Fund (Small Cap)	275.57
I Fund (International)	102.09
F Fund (Bonds)	99.66
VIX	19.5
TNX	4.26

These are real market proxies used to model TSP fund performance.

Recommended Allocation breakdown

30-Day Performance Simulation

Run history

Fund	Risk	Regime	Action	Message
C Fund	0.318	constructive	STAY_THE_COURSE	Three consecutive constructive readings confirm staying the course for C Fund.
C Fund	0.224	constructive	STAY_THE_COURSE	Three consecutive constructive readings confirm staying the course for C Fund.
C Fund	0.224	constructive	STAY_THE_COURSE	Three consecutive constructive readings confirm staying the course for C Fund.
C Fund	0.304	constructive	STAY_THE_COURSE	Three consecutive constructive readings confirm staying the course for C Fund.
C Fund	0.304	constructive	HOLD_AND_MONITOR	Not enough history yet to confirm a stronger action for C Fund.
C Fund	0.304	constructive	HOLD_AND_MONITOR	Not enough history yet to confirm a stronger action for C Fund.